UA 2413 · DFW → SFO

took off 3:50 PM CT · expected to land 5:09 PM PT (scheduled 3:26 PM CT → 5:19 PM PT)

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

3% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFO?

LIVE

On time or early
97%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↑ 3pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2413 · DFW → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?