UA 2467 · SFO → EWR

departs 10:25 AM PT · arrives 6:55 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from SFO are often late

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling6,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2467 · SFO → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?