UA 2469 · SFO → FLL

departs 9:17 PM PT · arrives 5:47 AM ET

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts +18 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to FLL?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

FLL (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2469 · SFO → FLL

Odds over time

How late will it get to FLL?