Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2470 LANDED 2:36 PM MT, ~22 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

UA 2470 · YVR → DEN

took off 11:12 AM PDT · landed 2:36 PM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ YVR is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

YVR (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2470 · YVR → DEN

Odds over time