Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2478 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

UA 2478 · SFO → DFW

departs 6:50 PM PT · arrives 12:37 AM CT

Forecast issued Sat 6:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↑ 6pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Visibility down to 2 mi forecast at SFO that day

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility2 mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling9,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2478 · SFO → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?