Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 259 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

UA 259 · SBP → DEN

departs 12:42 PM PT · arrives 4:15 PM MT

Forecast issued Sat 5:00 AM ET · 59h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ 12pm departures from SBP are often late

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SBP (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2 mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 259 · SBP → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?