Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2641 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

UA 2641 · EWR → LAX

departs 5:30 PM ET · arrives 8:40 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 2:00 AM ET · 64h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 5pm departures from EWR are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.02 in

LAX (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2641 · EWR → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?