Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2654 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

UA 2654 · IAH → SEA

departs 8:00 AM CT · arrives 10:47 AM PT

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 AM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ SEA is busy at that time

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling4,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2654 · IAH → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?