Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2812 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

UA 2812 · IAH → TPA

departs 2:34 PM CT · arrives 5:55 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±4 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at TPA that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 2pm departures from IAH are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility8.66667 mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.16 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2812 · IAH → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?