UA 2843 · DEN → BWI

departs 6:03 PM MT · arrives 11:28 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BWI (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2843 · DEN → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?