UA 2861 · IAD → MCO

departs 3:49 PM ET · arrives 6:26 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.23 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2861 · IAD → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?