UA 286 · ICN → EWR

departs 5:33 PM KST · arrives 6:10 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ICN (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

EWR (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 286 · ICN → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?