UA 392 · TPA → EWR

departs 7:09 PM ET · arrives 9:50 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
29%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at EWR that day

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

EWR (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 392 · TPA → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?