Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 402 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

UA 402 · DFW → EWR

departs 4:52 PM CT · arrives 9:27 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 AM ET · 59h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±7 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↑ 4pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 402 · DFW → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?