tailodds FORECAST

Schedule: FAA flight plans.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 421 IN THE AIR (OFF 10:31 PM ET, ETA 10:59 PM CT)
Yesterday

UA 421 · IAD → ORD

took off 10:31 PM ET · expected to land 10:59 PM CT (scheduled 10:22 PM ET → 11:25 PM CT)
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
<1% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
WEATHER FORECASTS LIVE IN THE AIR 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% 1.1d 12h 6h Departs Lands

How late will it get to ORD?

LIVE
  1. On time or early
    100%
  2. 15–30 min late
    <1%
  3. 30 min–1 hour late
    0%
  4. 1–2 hours late
    0%
  5. Over 2 hours late
    0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.