UA 517 · SFO → EWR

departs 6:04 AM PT · arrives 2:52 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

10% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling4,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 517 · SFO → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?