Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 525 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

UA 525 · AUS → IAD

departs 7:30 AM CT · arrives 11:48 AM ET

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 AM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 525 · AUS → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?