Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 530 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

UA 530 · ORD → ATL

departs 9:07 AM CT · arrives 12:22 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 AM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ATL?

On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at ATL that day

↑ 9am departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 14% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ ATL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ATL (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.48 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 530 · ORD → ATL

Odds over time

How late will it get to ATL?