Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 589 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

UA 589 · IAH → SFO

departs 3:30 PM CT · arrives 5:35 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 12:00 AM ET · 64h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Visibility down to 1 mi forecast at SFO that day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility1 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 589 · IAH → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?