Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 809 TAXIING (LEFT THE GATE 2:08 PM PT) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

UA 809 · SFO → MNL

left the gate 2:08 PM PT · taxiing (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at MNL more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MNL (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 809 · SFO → MNL

Odds over time