UA 862 · HKG → SFO

departs 12:02 PM HKT · arrives 9:48 AM PT

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at HKG

↓ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

HKG (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

SFO (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 862 · HKG → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?