UA 865 · NRT → GUM

departs 4:26 PM JST · arrives 9:11 PM ChST

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at GUM more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to GUM?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, 0.5 in of rain forecast at GUM that day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at NRT

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Other factors

↓ Arrivals into GUM at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

NRT (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

GUM (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling4,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.16 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 865 · NRT → GUM

Odds over time

How late will it get to GUM?