UA 871 · SFO → TPE

departs 2:29 PM PT · arrives 7:19 PM CST

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at TPE more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to TPE?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TPE (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 871 · SFO → TPE

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPE?