WN 1048 · OAK → SEA

departs 8:25 PM PT · arrives 10:27 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ 8pm departures from OAK are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

Weather at each end

OAK (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1048 · OAK → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?