WN 1097 · BWI → ORF

departs 10:33 AM ET · arrives 11:38 AM ET

Forecast issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?

40% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ORF?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ BWI is busy at that time

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at ORF that day

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ ORF usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

ORF (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1097 · BWI → ORF

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORF?