WN 1281 · TPA → BUF

departs 8:25 PM ET · arrives 11:11 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

52% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BUF?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
28%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA

↑ 8pm departures from TPA are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ TPA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.10 in

BUF (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1281 · TPA → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?