Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 133
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
WN 133 · TPA → SAN
departs 7:00 PM ET · arrives 8:55 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 10/4 42%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 42%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed – in 24h
–
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at TPA that day
↑
This flight has been late 37% of the time recently
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.19 in
SAN (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.