WN 1406 · BWI → DEN

departs 4:52 PM ET · arrives 6:53 PM MT

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ 4pm departures from BWI are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1406 · BWI → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?