Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1460
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
WN 1460 · SMF → SAN
departs 7:30 AM PT · arrives 9:00 AM PT
Forecast issued Sat 3:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 10/4 11%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 23% of the time recently
↑
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.