WN 1513 · MSY → SAT

departs 2:20 PM CT · arrives 4:34 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from MSY are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at MSY that day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Other factors

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MSY (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.13 in

SAT (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling4,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1513 · MSY → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?