Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 164
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
WN 164 · MDW → MCO
departs 5:10 PM CT · arrives 8:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±3 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.37 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.