WN 1686 · SAN → LAS

departs 1:09 PM PT · arrives 2:31 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from SAN are often late

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1686 · SAN → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?