WN 1690 · PHX → TPA

departs 5:45 PM MT · arrives 12:49 AM ET

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

47% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
28%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ This flight has been late 36% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.10 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1690 · PHX → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?