WN 1761 · DEN → RDU

departs 10:41 AM MT · arrives 3:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↑ 10am departures from DEN are often late

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RDU (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1761 · DEN → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?