Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1833 LANDED 2:43 PM MT, ~10 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

WN 1833 · DSM → PHX

took off 2:11 PM CT · landed 2:43 PM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DSM

Weather at each end

DSM (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1833 · DSM → PHX

Odds over time