WN 1838 · LAS → DSM

departs 11:00 AM PT · arrives 3:56 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DSM?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ 11am departures from LAS are often late

↑ LAS is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DSM (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1838 · LAS → DSM

Odds over time

How late will it get to DSM?