Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1845
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
WN 1845 · FAT → SAN
departs 5:40 PM PT · arrives 6:55 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 70h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 43%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave FAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 61% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FAT
Weather at each end
FAT (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.