WN 1860 · LAS → TPA

departs 4:55 PM PT · arrives 12:11 AM ET

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1860 · LAS → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?