WN 1943 · SAN → LAS

departs 4:29 PM PT · arrives 5:51 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from SAN are often late

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1943 · SAN → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?