WN 1994 · HNL → SMF

took off 1:44 PM HT · expected to land 9:20 PM PT (scheduled 12:10 PM HT → 8:19 PM PT)

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SMF?

LIVE

On time or early
0%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
27%
1–2 hours late
73%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from HNL are often late

↑ Arrivals into SMF at that hour are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

SMF (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1994 · HNL → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?