WN 2007 · PHX → OMA

departs 9:15 PM MT · arrives 1:55 AM CT

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OMA?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into OMA at that hour are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

OMA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2007 · PHX → OMA

Odds over time

How late will it get to OMA?