WN 2099 · MSY → STL

took off 7:51 PM CT · expected to land 9:10 PM CT (scheduled 7:15 PM CT → 9:08 PM CT)

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to STL?

LIVE

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 7pm departures from MSY are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MSY (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.02 in

STL (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2099 · MSY → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?