WN 2112 · TPA → PHX

took off 7:29 PM ET · expected to land 8:23 PM MT (scheduled 7:00 PM ET → 8:19 PM MT)

Forecast issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHX?

LIVE

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
29%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 7pm departures from TPA are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.04 in

PHX (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2112 · TPA → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?