WN 2115 · SAN → OAK

departs 10:07 AM PT · arrives 11:43 AM PT

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OAK?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from SAN are often late

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK

↓ Arrivals into OAK at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

OAK (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2115 · SAN → OAK

Odds over time

How late will it get to OAK?