WN 2187 · LAS → SAN

departs 7:36 PM PT · arrives 8:53 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±10 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2187 · LAS → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?