WN 2203 · JAX → AUS

departs 6:55 PM ET · arrives 8:35 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

47% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at JAX that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ JAX usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

JAX (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip1.16 in

AUS (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling3,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2203 · JAX → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?