WN 2439 · LAS → SNA

departs 8:25 PM PT · arrives 9:37 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±8 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SNA?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SNA (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2439 · LAS → SNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SNA?