Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2469
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
WN 2469 · LGA → MDW
departs 9:30 PM ET · arrives 11:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 2:00 AM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Sun 10/4 50%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±9 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from LGA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.02 in
MDW (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.