WN 2490 · MCO → MDW

departs 2:25 PM ET · arrives 4:20 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?

32% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MDW?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day

↑ 2pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.39 in

MDW (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2490 · MCO → MDW

Odds over time

How late will it get to MDW?