WN 2535 · LGA → DEN

took off 10:06 PM ET · expected to land 11:34 PM MT (scheduled 8:55 PM ET → 11:05 PM MT)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

99% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DEN?

LIVE

On time or early
1%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
76%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ Gusts to 32 kt, cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at LGA that day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts32 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2535 · LGA → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?